Well deja vu. Oddly we have sold exactly the same number of NP residential properties for 3 months in a row. It seems like Ground Hogg Day when I look at the statistics again. This is actually somewhat expected though; we seem to be going through a period of very steady selling, with unspectacular volumes. Sales are right across the price and location spectrum. Buyers are active in all sections of the market. What they do have in common is short arms and long pockets. Offers are very conservative and their choices are increasing daily. Money is plentiful; many 90% mortgages are again available. I am still confident we will continue to see solid if unspectacular sales numbers through 2015. Capital growth like inflation, seems to be banished from the landscape. Treat any offers with respect, buyers lose interest in difficult negotiations quite quickly, and just move onto the next opportunity.
John Christiansen
Monday, 9 March 2015
Monday, 16 February 2015
Manager's Comments 16-2-15
This market continues to be difficult. New Plymouth & Bell Block reported sales in January (61), are way down on both January 2014 (Down 15), and December 2014 (down 16). Although we continue to enjoy buyer interest, they certainly have this market under control with judicious selection of property, and conservative offers. The last 3 months of 2014 saw a lift in activity, which is yet to materialize in 2015. With more property being listed these last few weeks we hope this activity returns, but so far the buyers are still on holiday.
John Christiansen
John Christiansen
Sunday, 4 January 2015
Manager's Comments 5-01-15
2015, the Crystal ball.
With the continuation of activity from October, November and December we expect 2015 to start with a good level of real estate activity from both sellers and buyers. Interest rates are steady, employment is high, and banks are coming to the party and the election is old news. However there are two elephants in the room as they say.
Firstly, Fonterra’s payout has plummeted. 2014 was $8.30. 2015 is forecast by Fonterra to be over 43% down to $4.70 this year. That will trickle through the Taranaki economy as farmers stop spending, as they must if milk solids prices don’t improve.
Also, the energy sector is hard hit by rapidly falling oil prices and huge over supply. Speculative exploration is no longer financially viable. Activity in our energy sector will slow down in 2015. This will bring pressure to the rental market particularly, and real estate sales generally if people begin to leave town and we see a surplus of stock. The opposite of where we have been for 2or 3 years.
Neither of these situations may last. These are both dynamic and volatile markets which can change over night. Harcourts still expect a good steady 2015 in real estate sales, but the balance is precarious and the future is uncertain.
John Christiansen
With the continuation of activity from October, November and December we expect 2015 to start with a good level of real estate activity from both sellers and buyers. Interest rates are steady, employment is high, and banks are coming to the party and the election is old news. However there are two elephants in the room as they say.
Firstly, Fonterra’s payout has plummeted. 2014 was $8.30. 2015 is forecast by Fonterra to be over 43% down to $4.70 this year. That will trickle through the Taranaki economy as farmers stop spending, as they must if milk solids prices don’t improve.
Also, the energy sector is hard hit by rapidly falling oil prices and huge over supply. Speculative exploration is no longer financially viable. Activity in our energy sector will slow down in 2015. This will bring pressure to the rental market particularly, and real estate sales generally if people begin to leave town and we see a surplus of stock. The opposite of where we have been for 2or 3 years.
Neither of these situations may last. These are both dynamic and volatile markets which can change over night. Harcourts still expect a good steady 2015 in real estate sales, but the balance is precarious and the future is uncertain.
John Christiansen
Wednesday, 26 November 2014
Manager's Comments 24-11-14
The count down to Christmas begins. A month
to go till Christmas Eve, when the world stops for a well earned breather, not
to recommence the business of house buying until about Monday 13th
January 2015. In the interim we have Christmas and New Year, very busy family
and social time. Buyers are thinking about other things. This year we should be
busy with buyers until Monday 21st or maybe the 22nd of
December. After that, not much. On the up side for sellers is the last
Harcourts BluePrint of the year published 20 December. This will be a bumper
issue and will have an extended shelf life. The next publication is not until
10 January, 3 weeks later. We do accommodate a number of expats in our city
over Christmas and we are now becoming a ‘destination’, and there will be many
out of town visitors. They will be interested in property and will browse the
available advertising. That is, our last BluePrint. Talk to your agent about
extending your profile in the last issue. Doubling the size of your presence in
the BluePrint will be a good investment with 3 times the exposure before
another publication is out.
John Christiansen
Sunday, 9 November 2014
Manager's Comments 10-11-14
A story in the Daily News last week and the NZ Herald last weekend, cites the success and growth of the greater New Plymouth real estate market. We are one of the only areas outside Auckland and Christchurch to have capital gains of over 5% since the height of the previous strong run in 2007. Nelson was the other. I’m not sure about Nelson, but I can give some insight into New Plymouths seemingly amazing figures.
In the ‘flush’ of 2006/7 very good volumes of sales were taking place right across the board. Our first few million dollar sales, and a good strong showing in all the price ranges below that. Volumes were very strong. Over those years averaging 94 sales per month, up to 123 in May 2007. In September 2014 there were 68 sales. 27.7% less. Over 1 quarter of our sales volume has gone. So to get our median up to the present $346,250, we have had an unusual weight of high price sales dragging the median up to 2007 levels. In 2007 there were 27.7%, or 23 sales per month more on average. Those were solid numbers and not distorted so much by the few high prices achieved, as statistics are now in much lighter volumes. Our market suffers from a severe lack of stock. About half the number of properties are available on the market now than in 2007. Don’t get carried away with current price medians, they have little substance in steady volume. It would be fair to say that apart from the very top end in exclusive locations, the value of individual houses in New Plymouth has not exceeded 2007 levels.
John Christiansen
In the ‘flush’ of 2006/7 very good volumes of sales were taking place right across the board. Our first few million dollar sales, and a good strong showing in all the price ranges below that. Volumes were very strong. Over those years averaging 94 sales per month, up to 123 in May 2007. In September 2014 there were 68 sales. 27.7% less. Over 1 quarter of our sales volume has gone. So to get our median up to the present $346,250, we have had an unusual weight of high price sales dragging the median up to 2007 levels. In 2007 there were 27.7%, or 23 sales per month more on average. Those were solid numbers and not distorted so much by the few high prices achieved, as statistics are now in much lighter volumes. Our market suffers from a severe lack of stock. About half the number of properties are available on the market now than in 2007. Don’t get carried away with current price medians, they have little substance in steady volume. It would be fair to say that apart from the very top end in exclusive locations, the value of individual houses in New Plymouth has not exceeded 2007 levels.
John Christiansen
Thursday, 25 September 2014
Manager's Comments 26-9-14
We have seen a market increase in buyer activity, offers and
sales during September. Why? We wish we knew. This started prior to the
election, no particular good news or market anomaly appears to have sparked this
interest. Now with a settled political outlook, daylight saving and warmer
longer days we can only expect this trend to continue to build. What has been
constant with buyers throughout is that they know the market, they know where
they see value, and they stick to what they know when making offers. What I am
saying is more buyer interest is welcome, but prices remain constant and in
order to sell, vendors still need to meet the market.
John Christiansen
John Christiansen
Wednesday, 17 September 2014
Managers' Comments 15-9-14
There is a marked increase in new listings over the past 3-4 weeks. Spring has sprung to mind for many who are looking at getting into this market now to capitalize on the dearth of good properties. Currently there are only half the properties for sale in New Plymouth than would normally be expected at this time of the year. This slight increase will free the market up somewhat and provide competition for those already listed for sale. We are still experiencing a good level of buyer activity, but given more good houses to chose from, that may be dissipated somewhat. Consider this when your offer comes. Meantime, longer days, better weather and more overall activity will be a good thing.
John Christiansen
John Christiansen
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